It certainly looks like it's going to pay to shop around on the lines.Even on the games so far you've been able to obtain getting on for double digit differences from different firms.
The form lines are really difficult for anyone to interpret.England top the current world rankings with almost 1300 ranking points,while of the WCup sides Uruaguay rank bottom with 300 points.On the odd occassions that team's from the top of the rankings play the bottom sides,it's invariably with "A" sides instead of full international sides.
Therefore past form can be very deceptive.For example Japan have averaged around 60 points per game in their last 10 games,but of those opponents only USA & Tonga made it to the WC.
You've got to take a long hard look at the standard of the opponents.
Another anomaly is that it's often the weaker sides at the WC who rest players when they face the better sides.The reason being they try to target games that they perhaps could win,instead of games that they know they'll lose.Canada v NZ being an example.
Having said that Argentina are resting their entire starting 15 against Namibia tommorrow,because their crunch qualifying game is against the Irish.Consequently the spread opened pre tournament at Namibia+57 & it's dropped 10 points.
A couple of tournament rules that might be worth mentioning that might affect how teams approach a game.Team's get a bonus point for scoring 4 tries & team's also get a bonus point for only losing by 7 points or less.
Of the games you mention,
Japan were mightily impressive in defeat by Scotland.Scotland are well use to playing top rank rugby sides,but after taking an early lead were on the back foot for the entire game.Japan tackled relentlessly & had speed to burn.Betfair had them getting a 16 points start in their game with the States.I carn't see them being much more than a converted try adrift..they could even win it outright.
The Japanese want to put up a good show as they want to stage the 2011 tounament.
Georgia also looked good against England.Non existent as an attacking threat they tackled for the whole 80 mins.The pre game torrential rain helped them,but England are ruthless against inferior teams(134-0 verses Romania)so a 84-6 beating was a huge achievement.The pre tourney quotes for their game against Uruaguay were about right,but if there's no post England letdown the Georgians look the h'cap bet.
Disappoined with the Canadians.Competed for the first quarter against Wales(the weakest of the home nations),but wern't in it after that.Poor at set pieces,they turned the ball over when they did get it.
Italy regularly compete with the top nations(they're part of the Six Nations comprising,England,Scotand,Ireland,Wales & France).Even though Canada rank above the Italians,this will be a game Italy should win(they rested players against NZ),but if the h'cap creeps near to two converted tries it's not a game I'd bet on.
Argentina were let down by their kicking against Australia.They should have covered the spread much more comfortably,although they never threatened to win outright.They certainly got the worst of a very picky referee.
Romania put a few markers down against Ireland,who had to work hard for their win.Along with Japan they're the only one of the third ranking sides who look capable of threatening tries against the game's top sides.
Stating the obvious I know,but only England or NZ can win the cup.Slight preference for England,who've beaten every top team in the world this year,their only defeat coming as an understrength side by one point in Paris(they ran out 45-14 winners a week later in the rematch)
Potter.
